A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
